Jim Guido's Blog

A closely watched survey reported Tuesday that U.S. single-family home prices declined in September. This report  highlight’s  the fragility of a market as it struggles to get back on its feet.

As reported by The S&P/Case Shiller composite index, 20 metropolitan areas fell 0.6 percent from August on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Prices in August were also revised to show a decline of 0.3 percent after originally being reported as unchanged.

The broader trend here is that it appears that home prices over the last few months continue to get weaker.

This ties in with the current consumer attitude that has gotten a lot of more negative, particularly when it comes to making a long-term commitment, such as buying a home.

The index has leveled off in recent months and analysts are hoping the market is at least stabilizing.

Also over the last year home prices in most cities drifted lower, but the plunging collapse of prices seen in 2007-2009 appears to be behind us. Any chance for a sustained recovery will probably need a stronger economy.

The  report also pointed out that third quarter prices were down 1.2 percent from the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis and were down 3.9 percent from the third quarter a year ago.

Compared to a year ago, price declines in the 20 cities continued to improve in September and were down 3.6 percent after a year over year decline of 3.8 percent the month before.

A new report states that after holding up relatively well this summer, it looks like home prices have begun falling again.

CoreLogic is reporting that for a second month in a row, home prices fell 1.1 percent from the month before as fresh foreclosures continued to add inventory to the glut of unsold homes. Home prices fell 1.1 percent in both  September and August.

Record low mortgage interest rates helped home values this summer. After falling steadily last winter, the CoreLogic index flattened out this summer. The latest drop in home prices is 4.1 percent lower than they were in September 2010.

The current outlook for home prices remains clouded by the continuing wave of foreclosures that has left the market with many more sellers than buyers. Some banks have slowed the pace of foreclosures to avoid adding more unsold inventory to their books. As lenders slash prices of foreclosed properties, those “distressed” sales force prices of all homes lower.

This will cause home prices  to correct for the supply-demand imbalance.   Declining home values are expected  to continue through the winter.  Distressed sales remain a significant share of homes that do sell and are driving home prices overall.

While mortgage rates at record lows home prices keep falling. Even though houses are more affordable than they have been since the housing bubble burst some five years ago the demand has been held back for several reasons, including the weak economy and high unemployment.

There were 3.5 million homes on the market in September, or about 8.5 months’ worth of supply based on the current level of demand, according to the National Association of Realtors. Housing analysts generally figure that supply and demand are well balanced with about a six months’ supply of homes.

And with millions of foreclosures stalled in the courts or on hold by banks, there is a large “shadow” inventory that continues to weigh on prices. Some figures suggest there are about 4 million homes in that pipeline.

The states with the biggest price drops were Nevada (down 12.4 percent), Illinois (down 9.2 percent), Arizona (down 9.0 percent), Minnesota (down 8.2 percent) and Georgia (down 7.2 percent. )

The states with the biggest price gains were West Virginia (up 7.0 percent), Wyoming (up 3.8 percent), South Dakota (up 3.6 percent), Maine (up 3.5 percent) and North Dakota (up 3.1 percent.)

San Jose, 95124 Summary

The median sales price for homes in ZIP code 95124 for Jul 11 to Sep 11 was $526,500. This represents a decline of 9.1%, or $52,750, compared to the prior quarter and a decrease of 14.2% compared to the prior year. Sales prices have depreciated 29.1% over the last 5 years in 95124, San Jose. The median sales price of $526,500 for 95124 is 31.62% higher than the median sales price for San Jose CA. Average listing price for homes on Trulia in ZIP code 95124 was $624,496 for the week ending Oct 26, which represents a decline of 0.7%, or $4,556 compared to the prior week and a decline of 1.9%, or $12,403, compared to the week ending Oct 05. Average price per square foot for homes in 95124 was $355 in the most recent quarter, which is 21.99% higher than the average price per square foot for homes in San Jose.

95124, San Jose Recently Sold Homes

95124, San Jose Homes For Sale

Could the besieged housing market have even further to fall before home prices really hit rock bottom?

A new report by  Fiserv, a financial analytics company, states that home values are expected to fall another 3.6% by next June, pushing them to a new low of 35% below the peak reached in early 2006 and marking a triple dip in prices.

There are several factors working against the housing market in the upcoming months, including an increase in foreclosure activity and sustained high unemployment.

If home values meet Fiserv’s expectations, it would make it the third trough for home prices since the housing bubble burst. The first post-bubble bottom was hit in 2009, when prices fell to 31% below peak. While the First Time Home Buyer Credit helped raise prices by mid-2010, prices fell again once the credit expired.

During the second dip, which was reached last winter, prices were down about 33%. We did have a mild rally that was artificially spurred as banks slowed the processing of foreclosures following the robo-signing scandal, which found that loan servicers were rapidly signing foreclosures without properly vetting them.

With the scandal mostly resolved the lenders are speeding more cases through the foreclosure pipeline and back onto the market, weighing on home prices even further.

Earlier this month, RealtyTrac reported the first quarterly increase in foreclosure filings in three quarters. Even more discouraging: new default notices were up 14%. There is also a shadow inventory of homes that will be hitting the market when the banks release them for sale. This may also put pressure on the market and prices.